Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:28 pm at Atlanta); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 75%, against 38% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2012 at 17:30, 75%.

Nonstops today


DL 2012 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:30	SNA 19:00	75%	23%	0.6%	71%worse than usual
DL 826 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:59	SNA 22:25	75%	16%	0.7%	79%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SNA 22:00DL 1304	7h 05m	41%	29%
American Details →	ATL 18:13 → PHX 19:25AA 3012	1h 42m Phoenix	PHX 21:07 → SNA 22:26AA 2637	7h 13m	61%	25%
American Details →	ATL 17:34 → DFW 19:08AA 1376	2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:16 → SNA 22:24AA 348	7h 50m	61%	21%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON