Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:56 pm at Appleton); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 18:45, is the safest bet: 45% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ATW 18:45 → ORD 20:25AA 3410 · flown by Envoy	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → DFW 23:48AA 2281	5h 03m	79%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON