Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:09 pm at Austin); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 65%, against 36% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4469 at 19:45, 61%.

Nonstops today


WN 4469 Southwest	AUS 19:45	MDW 22:20	61%	18%	0.2%	no record
WN 361 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 19:25	MDW 22:00	69%	18%	0.2%	64%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AUS 20:35 → LAS 21:20WN 102	2h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 23:55 → MDW 05:25 +1WN 2276	8h 50m	94%	61%
Southwest Details →	AUS 20:50 → LAX 22:00WN 65	1h 55m Los Angeles	LAX 23:55 → MDW 05:55 +1WN 2413	9h 05m	92%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON