Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:36 pm at Austin); 17 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 75%, against 37% on a calm day. Safest: WN 378 at 21:55, 75%.

Nonstops today


WN 378 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 21:55	PHX 22:25	75%	37%	0.3%	50%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON