Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:12 pm at Austin); 5 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 68%, against 37% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2581 at 19:25, 66%.

Nonstops today


DL 2581 Delta Flight history →	AUS 19:25	SLC 21:21	66%	29%	0.3%	82%worse than usual
WN 323 Southwest	AUS 21:02	SLC 22:59	69%	25%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AUS 19:25 → PHX 19:55WN 4426	2h 57m Phoenix	PHX 22:52 → SLC 01:35 +1WN 3313	7h 10m	96%	38%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	AUS 20:35 → LAS 21:20WN 102	1h 22m Las Vegas	LAS 22:42 → SLC 01:07 +1WN 1693	5h 32m	59%	25%
American Details →	AUS 19:48 → DFW 21:20AA 5574 · flown by PSA	1h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:52 → SLC 00:36 +1AA 2378	5h 48m	60%	18%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON