tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:36 am at San Francisco Bay Area); 1 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 38 nonstops

Today: AA 234 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–35%.

Safest bet today AA 234 SFO 06:15 → JFK 15:02 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2480 SFO 13:11 → EWR 21:30 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time
Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.
AA 234 American Flight history → SFO 06:15 JFK 15:02 11% 2% 0.6% 92%
UA 517 United SFO 06:06 EWR 14:58 11% 3% 0.4% no record
UA 419 United Flight history → SFO 06:10 EWR 15:00 11% 3% 0.4% 91%
DL 405 Delta Flight history → SFO 07:00 JFK 15:43 11% 2% 0.5% 90%
UA 1149 United Flight history → SFO 07:00 EWR 15:49 12% 4% 0.4% 91%
UA 435 United Flight history → SFO 08:15 EWR 16:53 18% 6% 0.4% 83%
B6 116 JetBlue Flight history → SFO 06:00 JFK 14:38 18% 3% 0.7% 89%
AA 276 American Flight history → SFO 21:20 JFK 06:00 19% 6% 1.8% 87%
AS 211 Alaska Flight history → SFO 06:45 JFK 14:39 20% 3% 0.7% 92%worse than usual
DL 365 Delta Flight history → SFO 22:30 JFK 06:57 20% 7% 0.7% 78%
AS 20 Alaska Flight history → SFO 07:20 JFK 16:08 22% 4% 0.7% 80%
DL 319 Delta Flight history → SFO 22:35 JFK 06:49 23% 8% 0.7% 89%worse than usual
AS 40 Alaska Flight history → SFO 22:18 JFK 06:31 23% 7% 0.9% 88%worse than usual
UA 2626 United Flight history → SFO 16:20 EWR 01:10 24% 7% 0.4% 70%
B6 316 JetBlue Flight history → SFO 07:52 JFK 16:29 24% 6% 0.7% 87%worse than usual
UA 698 United Flight history → SFO 21:15 EWR 05:51 26% 6% 0.9% 84%worse than usual
B6 16 JetBlue Flight history → SFO 20:40 JFK 05:22 26% 11% 1.0% 74%
UA 2248 United Flight history → SFO 15:00 EWR 23:50 26% 9% 0.5% 67%
DL 396 Delta Flight history → SFO 16:00 JFK 00:40 28% 10% 0.5% 62%
DL 383 Delta Flight history → SFO 08:55 JFK 17:45 30% 7% 0.5% 88%worse than usual
UA 1141 United Flight history → SFO 22:35 EWR 07:00 31% 6% 0.8% 83%worse than usual
DL 363 Delta Flight history → SFO 16:05 JFK 00:17 35% 10% 0.5% 77%worse than usual
B6 816 JetBlue Flight history → SFO 23:50 JFK 08:33 35% 10% 0.9% 79%worse than usual
B6 416 JetBlue Flight history → SFO 14:35 JFK 23:20 36% 10% 0.7% 80%worse than usual
DL 606 Delta SFO 09:13 JFK 17:25 36% 9% 0.5% no record
UA 713 United Flight history → SFO 10:20 EWR 19:03 37% 11% 0.4% 75%worse than usual
AA 148 American Flight history → SFO 14:45 JFK 23:42 37% 12% 0.7% 73%worse than usual
AA 166 American Flight history → SFO 12:10 JFK 21:00 38% 10% 0.7% 74%worse than usual
DL 668 Delta Flight history → SFO 11:30 JFK 20:19 39% 11% 0.4% 76%worse than usual
UA 366 United Flight history → SFO 13:45 EWR 22:26 39% 13% 0.5% 57%
AA 16 American Flight history → SFO 10:15 JFK 19:04 40% 10% 0.7% 75%worse than usual
B6 216 JetBlue Flight history → SFO 13:15 JFK 22:02 40% 10% 0.7% 83%worse than usual
UA 274 United Flight history → SFO 11:15 EWR 20:10 42% 14% 0.5% 76%worse than usual
UA 2467 United SFO 10:27 EWR 19:01 44% 11% 0.5% no record
DL 691 Delta Flight history → SFO 13:00 JFK 21:44 45% 11% 0.4% 49%
AS 42 Alaska Flight history → SFO 13:38 JFK 22:26 47% 13% 0.7% 68%worse than usual
DL 631 Delta SFO 13:19 JFK 21:32 48% 11% 0.4% no record
UA 2480 United Flight history → SFO 13:11 EWR 21:30 50% 14% 0.5% 61%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → OAK 05:45 → DEN 09:15WN 3041 51m Denver DEN 10:06 → LGA 15:43WN 2890 6h 58m 91% 57%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 53m Detroit DTW 14:02 → LGA 15:53DL 2602 7h 13m 88% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON