Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:32 am at San Francisco Bay Area); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: UA 2071 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–39%.

Safest bet today UA 2071 SFO 07:05 → MCO 15:39 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1939 SFO 12:31 → MCO 20:48 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 2071 United Flight history →	SFO 07:05	MCO 15:39	13%	3%	0.3%	90%
UA 1267 United Flight history →	SFO 23:59	MCO 08:34	22%	7%	0.9%	76%
UA 583 United Flight history →	SFO 08:57	MCO 17:31	26%	4%	0.4%	90%worse than usual
AS 368 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 08:23	MCO 16:32	26%	5%	0.6%	87%worse than usual
UA 1939 United	SFO 12:31	MCO 20:48	39%	7%	0.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 19:24 → SLC 22:14DL 2652	1h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069	7h 36m	81%	58%
Southwest Details →	SFO 09:25 → DEN 12:55WN 4284	1h 31m Denver	DEN 14:26 → MCO 20:00WN 2137	7h 35m	83%	56%
Southwest Details →	SJC 19:35 → LAX 21:00WN 3680	1h 21m Los Angeles	LAX 22:21 → MCO 06:09 +1WN 937	7h 34m	77%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON