Today: AA 369 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–30%.

Safest bet today AA 369 SFO 07:20 → MIA 16:06 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 378 SFO 11:00 → FLL 19:45 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 369 American Flight history →	SFO 07:20	MIA 16:06	12%	3%	0.3%	89%
UA 2431 United	SFO 06:58	FLL 15:34	12%	2%	0.2%	no record
UA 1230 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	FLL 05:59	16%	6%	0.7%	75%
UA 2469 United	SFO 21:19	FLL 05:51	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1769 United Flight history →	SFO 22:54	MIA 07:39	21%	5%	0.7%	86%
UA 2029 United Flight history →	SFO 08:45	MIA 17:34	21%	4%	0.4%	73%
AA 1545 American Flight history →	SFO 21:49	MIA 06:34	23%	6%	1.2%	56%
AA 1842 American	SFO 22:10	MIA 06:50	23%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 2799 American Flight history →	SFO 08:38	MIA 17:10	26%	4%	0.3%	72%
UA 1458 United	SFO 12:24	MIA 21:11	28%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 773 American	SFO 11:42	MIA 20:32	28%	6%	0.3%	no record
AA 2565 American Flight history →	SFO 11:24	MIA 20:05	28%	6%	0.3%	58%
B6 278 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 22:40	FLL 07:22	30%	13%	0.7%	79%
B6 578 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 10:28	FLL 19:11	31%	6%	0.3%	82%worse than usual
B6 378 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 11:00	FLL 19:45	31%	7%	0.3%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	OAK 08:20 → DEN 11:45WN 3042	1h 40m Denver	DEN 13:25 → FLL 19:25WN 1561	8h 05m	100%	69%
American Details →	SJC 12:45 → PHX 14:46AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	1h 38m Phoenix	PHX 16:24 → MIA 23:54AA 496	8h 09m	100%	68%
United Details →	SJC 18:37 → DEN 22:16UA 1035	1h 43m Denver	DEN 23:59 → FLL 05:50 +1UA 519	8h 13m	92%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON