Today: UA 393 at 19:54 is the safest bet, 35% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36–63%.

Safest bet today UA 393 BNA 19:54 → DEN 22:06 · 35% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1535 BNA 16:51 → DEN 18:07 · 63% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 39% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 393 United	BNA 19:54	DEN 22:06	35%	10%	0.1%	no record
UA 1766 United Flight history →	BNA 14:29	DEN 16:29	36%	8%	0.1%	80%worse than usual
WN 503 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 14:30	DEN 16:20	40%	6%	0.1%	46%
WN 3490 Southwest	BNA 19:02	DEN 20:53	40%	9%	0.1%	no record
WN 505 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 18:40	DEN 20:30	42%	9%	0.1%	32%
F9 1401 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 15:01	DEN 16:59	43%	14%	0.7%	77%worse than usual
UA 1268 United Flight history →	BNA 17:30	DEN 19:36	48%	9%	0.1%	40%
UA 2201 United Flight history →	BNA 17:24	DEN 19:15	48%	9%	0.2%	66%worse than usual
WN 504 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 16:40	DEN 18:40	50%	8%	0.1%	39%
WN 1535 Southwest	BNA 16:51	DEN 18:07	63%	8%	0.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON