Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 33–43% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 267 BNA 16:53 → FLL 20:14 · 33% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4732 BNA 19:20 → FLL 22:41 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 267 Southwest	BNA 16:53	FLL 20:14	33%	8%	0.2%	no record
WN 2331 Southwest	BNA 16:20	FLL 19:40	37%	9%	0.2%	no record
G4 508 Allegiant Flight history →	BNA 20:19	FLL 23:32	40%	15%	0.6%	0%
WN 4732 Southwest	BNA 19:20	FLL 22:41	43%	9%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON