Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 54%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: WN 572 at 20:25, 48%.

Safest bet today WN 572 BNA 20:25 → MCO 23:30 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time Riskiest WN 639 BNA 18:08 → MCO 21:08 · 60% chance 15+ min late

Weather 54% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 14 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 572 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:25	MCO 23:30	48%	19%	0.4%	56%
WN 1723 Southwest	BNA 20:31	MCO 23:31	55%	19%	0.5%	no record
WN 639 Southwest	BNA 18:08	MCO 21:08	60%	15%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON