Today: YX 3424 at 15:05 is the safest bet, 29% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–60%.

Safest bet today YX 3424 BNA 15:05 → ORD 17:07 · 29% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2126 BNA 17:50 → ORD 19:52 · 60% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 14 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 3424 Republic	BNA 15:05	ORD 17:07	29%	9%	0.2%	no record
UA 3440 United flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 15:01	ORD 17:04	31%	11%	0.3%	55%
MQ 3679 Envoy	BNA 19:48	ORD 21:40	36%	8%	0.5%	no record
AA 3383 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BNA 19:28	ORD 21:25	39%	9%	0.6%	48%
AA 2112 American	BNA 16:00	ORD 17:56	48%	14%	0.4%	no record
AA 6200 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 16:01	ORD 18:09	50%	11%	0.6%	58%
UA 1884 United Flight history →	BNA 16:59	ORD 19:00	54%	10%	0.2%	57%worse than usual
UA 1127 United Flight history →	BNA 18:41	ORD 20:37	56%	11%	0.2%	48%
UA 4679 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 18:24	ORD 20:30	56%	11%	0.6%	59%worse than usual
AA 1570 American Flight history →	BNA 17:41	ORD 19:55	60%	16%	0.4%	51%worse than usual
AA 2126 American	BNA 17:50	ORD 19:52	60%	16%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON