Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: DL 5641 at 14:54, 19%.

Safest bet today DL 5641 BOS 14:54 → CLE 17:06 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 1341 BOS 18:17 → CLE 20:24 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Weather 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 5641 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:54	CLE 17:06	19%	7%	0.3%	86%
B6 641 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 14:37	CLE 16:35	36%	9%	0.3%	85%worse than usual
DL 5655 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:55	CLE 23:07	37%	11%	0.6%	62%
B6 1341 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:17	CLE 20:24	55%	18%	0.4%	69%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON