Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50%, against 39% on a calm day. Safest: DL 5807 at 19:40, 37%.

Safest bet today DL 5807 BOS 19:40 → CLT 22:20 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time Riskiest AA 922 BOS 18:57 → CLT 21:20 · 63% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Weather 50% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 39% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 5807 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 19:40	CLT 22:20	37%	12%	0.5%	66%
AA 1573 American Flight history →	BOS 16:46	CLT 19:28	46%	10%	0.4%	67%worse than usual
AA 698 American	BOS 17:06	CLT 19:32	50%	12%	0.5%	no record
AA 1552 American Flight history →	BOS 18:55	CLT 21:33	54%	16%	0.5%	66%worse than usual
AA 922 American Flight history →	BOS 18:57	CLT 21:20	63%	17%	0.5%	63%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON