Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44%, against 31% on a calm day. Safest: YX 4510 at 14:36, 25%.

Safest bet today YX 4510 BOS 14:36 → DCA 16:46 · 25% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1955 BOS 17:20 → DCA 19:08 · 61% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Weather 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 19 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 4510 Republic	BOS 14:36	DCA 16:46	25%	6%	0.4%	no record
AA 4380 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:19	DCA 17:11	26%	9%	0.5%	62%
DL 5682 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:20	DCA 16:17	28%	7%	0.4%	69%
DL 5689 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:45	DCA 17:49	28%	12%	0.5%	69%
DL 5704 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 21:48	DCA 23:44	31%	14%	0.7%	77%
DL 5666 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:05	DCA 22:03	44%	14%	0.6%	59%
DL 5667 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:50	DCA 19:56	47%	15%	0.6%	63%worse than usual
AA 4047 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BOS 20:22	DCA 22:19	48%	17%	1.0%	55%
AA 1004 American Flight history →	BOS 19:45	DCA 21:38	55%	14%	0.6%	58%worse than usual
AA 1421 American Flight history →	BOS 17:50	DCA 19:49	55%	15%	0.6%	52%
B6 1355 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:14	DCA 18:00	58%	19%	0.6%	57%worse than usual
B6 2255 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:06	DCA 20:03	58%	19%	0.6%	61%worse than usual
AA 852 American Flight history →	BOS 19:27	DCA 21:15	58%	18%	0.7%	38%
B6 1955 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:20	DCA 19:08	61%	19%	0.6%	57%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON