Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 42–47% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2305 BOS 19:20 → DFW 22:39 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest AA 1401 BOS 18:23 → DFW 21:40 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 48% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 14 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2305 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:20	DFW 22:39	42%	14%	0.7%	67%
AA 1577 American Flight history →	BOS 17:52	DFW 21:20	46%	14%	1.0%	58%
AA 1401 American Flight history →	BOS 18:23	DFW 21:40	47%	14%	0.9%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON