Today: YX 3719 at 20:26 is the safest bet, 37% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 46–66%.

Safest bet today YX 3719 BOS 20:26 → EWR 22:20 · 37% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1693 BOS 18:58 → EWR 20:26 · 66% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 56% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 49% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 3719 Republic	BOS 20:26	EWR 22:20	37%	14%	1.4%	no record
DL 5718 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:15	EWR 19:58	46%	18%	1.3%	60%
UA 2104 United	BOS 15:52	EWR 16:43	56%	20%	1.0%	no record
UA 555 United	BOS 17:59	EWR 19:37	60%	19%	0.7%	no record
UA 2060 United Flight history →	BOS 20:19	EWR 21:46	60%	22%	1.1%	64%worse than usual
UA 231 United	BOS 16:57	EWR 17:46	62%	18%	1.0%	no record
UA 1647 United Flight history →	BOS 17:44	EWR 19:15	63%	19%	0.9%	41%
UA 1693 United Flight history →	BOS 18:58	EWR 20:26	66%	22%	1.1%	69%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON