Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:03 pm at Boston); 10 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 61% (calm day: 37%). Best bet: United via Dulles, leaving 19:24, 28% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BOS 19:24 → IAD 21:13UA 2136	1h 03m Dulles	IAD 22:16 → IND 23:59UA 4021 · flown by Mesa	4h 35m	39%	25%
Southwest Details →	BOS 20:15 → BWI 22:00WN 1898	55m Baltimore	BWI 22:55 → IND 00:50 +1WN 3814	4h 35m	31%	15%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON