Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: DL 5702 at 21:20, 35%.

Safest bet today DL 5702 BOS 21:20 → JFK 22:47 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time Riskiest B6 817 BOS 19:39 → JFK 21:00 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Weather 46% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 14 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 5702 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 21:20	JFK 22:47	35%	16%	1.2%	66%
YX 4745 Republic	BOS 17:39	JFK 19:16	43%	17%	1.1%	no record
DL 5814 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:05	JFK 18:42	43%	18%	1.3%	66%
AA 4390 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:00	JFK 19:29	47%	20%	1.4%	57%
B6 317 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:55	JFK 18:15	51%	15%	1.0%	60%worse than usual
B6 817 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:39	JFK 21:00	58%	23%	1.1%	55%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON