Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 33–39% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 5792 BUF 18:24 → LGA 20:04 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 860 BUF 18:05 → LGA 19:32 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 53% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 5792 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 18:24	LGA 20:04	33%	11%	1.0%	86%worse than usual
AA 4378 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 18:08	LGA 19:37	38%	14%	1.0%	60%
AA 860 American	BUF 18:05	LGA 19:32	39%	13%	0.9%	no record
DL 5380 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 18:10	LGA 19:39	41%	20%	15.6%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON