Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:12 pm at Burbank); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Portland, leaving 18:10, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Eugene on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	BUR 18:10 → PDX 20:25AS 649	1h 15m Portland	PDX 21:40 → EUG 22:28AS 2088 · flown by Horizon	4h 18m	88%	71%
Southwest Details →	BUR 18:00 → SMF 19:25WN 3474	3h 01m Sacramento	SMF 22:26 → EUG 23:56WN 3463	5h 56m	95%	63%
Southwest Details →	BUR 19:20 → SMF 20:40WN 853	1h 40m Sacramento	SMF 22:20 → EUG 23:40WN 636	4h 20m	86%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	BUR 18:39 → SEA 21:20AS 703	1h 29m Seattle	SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon	5h 20m	73%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON