Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:46 am at Burbank)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 12:10, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 38% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BUR 12:10 → PHX 13:45WN 816	1h 45m Phoenix	PHX 15:30 → HOU 20:05WN 4203	5h 55m	100%	60%
Southwest Details →	BUR 09:30 → LAS 10:40WN 4724	1h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 12:00 → HOU 17:07WN 3524	5h 37m	90%	56%
Southwest Details →	BUR 15:25 → LAS 16:35WN 791	3h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 20:20 → HOU 01:23 +1WN 3986	7h 58m	96%	55%
Southwest Details →	BUR 17:15 → LAS 18:25WN 792	2h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 20:50 → HOU 01:55 +1WN 2244	6h 40m	97%	54%
Southwest Details →	BUR 15:55 → PHX 17:25WN 819	2h 55m Phoenix	PHX 20:20 → HOU 01:00 +1WN 4436	7h 05m	100%	52%
Southwest Details →	BUR 14:30 → LAS 15:40WN 4370	3h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 18:50 → HOU 23:55WN 2187	7h 25m	100%	49%
Southwest Details →	BUR 13:00 → LAS 14:15WN 790	1h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 15:45 → HOU 21:00WN 2988	6h 00m	92%	46%
Southwest Details →	BUR 09:15 → AUS 14:15WN 771	1h 00m Austin	AUS 15:15 → HOU 16:20WN 4392	5h 05m	85%	46%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BUR 18:50 → LAS 20:00WN 794	50m Las Vegas	LAS 20:50 → HOU 01:55 +1WN 2244	5h 05m	45%	25%
American Details →	BUR 12:22 → DFW 17:34AA 1208	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:28 → HOU 19:48AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	5h 26m	38%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON