Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:27 pm at Burbank)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via SFO, leaving 16:13, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BUR 16:13 → SFO 17:41UA 357	3h 49m San Francisco	SFO 21:30 → IAD 05:53 +1UA 357	10h 40m	98%	76%
United Details →	BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508	3h 10m San Francisco	SFO 23:20 → IAD 07:49 +1UA 2111	10h 07m	96%	73%
Alaska Details →	BUR 16:54 → SEA 19:28AS 537	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 22:43 → IAD 06:39 +1AS 367	10h 45m	91%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508	1h 20m San Francisco	SFO 21:30 → IAD 05:53 +1UA 357	8h 11m	66%	52%
United Details →	BUR 20:22 → SFO 21:50UA 2854	1h 15m San Francisco	SFO 23:05 → IAD 07:30 +1UA 1083	8h 08m	67%	50%
Alaska Details →	BUR 18:39 → SEA 21:20AS 703	1h 23m Seattle	SEA 22:43 → IAD 06:39 +1AS 367	9h 00m	65%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON