Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:09 pm at Burbank)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Portland, leaving 18:10, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops today


B6 359 JetBlue Flight history →	BUR 21:25	JFK 05:59	36%	15%	1.1%	72%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BUR 16:44 → PHX 18:23AA 6415 · flown by SkyWest	3h 27m Phoenix	PHX 21:50 → JFK 05:47 +1AA 1587	10h 03m	94%	67%
Alaska Details →	BUR 16:54 → SEA 19:28AS 537	3h 47m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → JFK 07:38 +1AS 22	11h 44m	98%	66%
Alaska Details →	BUR 18:10 → PDX 20:25AS 649	1h 03m Portland	PDX 21:28 → JFK 05:28 +1AS 336	8h 18m	83%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BUR 18:38 → PHX 20:19AA 4944 · flown by SkyWest	1h 31m Phoenix	PHX 21:50 → JFK 05:47 +1AA 1587	8h 09m	74%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON