tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:34 am at Burbank)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 17:15, is the safest bet: 31% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3205 Southwest BUR 10:51 MDW 16:49 15% 3% 0.2% no record
WN 1101 Southwest BUR 11:50 MDW 17:45 19% 3% 0.2% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BUR 18:35 → SJC 19:45WN 840 3h 16m San Jose SJC 23:01 → MDW 05:08 +1WN 3824 8h 33m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 18:50 → LAS 20:00WN 794 3h 55m Las Vegas LAS 23:55 → MDW 05:25 +1WN 2276 8h 35m 100% 79%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 19:30 → OAK 20:45WN 807 3h 10m Oakland OAK 23:55 → MDW 06:00 +1WN 3059 8h 30m 98% 78%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 19:20 → SMF 20:40WN 853 3h 10m Sacramento SMF 23:50 → MDW 05:45 +1WN 3802 8h 25m 99% 76%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 12:10 → PHX 13:45WN 816 2h 22m Phoenix PHX 16:07 → MDW 21:31WN 297 7h 21m 100% 67%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 20:20 → SJC 21:30WN 4884 1h 25m San Jose SJC 22:55 → MDW 05:00 +1WN 623 6h 40m 81% 65%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 13:00 → LAS 14:15WN 790 2h 01m Las Vegas LAS 16:16 → MDW 21:47WN 3992 6h 47m 100% 65%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 14:30 → LAS 15:40WN 4370 2h 35m Las Vegas LAS 18:15 → MDW 23:45WN 2179 7h 15m 100% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BUR 17:15 → LAS 18:25WN 792 55m Las Vegas LAS 19:20 → MDW 00:55 +1WN 3200 5h 40m 48% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON