Today: OO 5272 at 21:18 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–38%.

Safest bet today OO 5272 BUR 21:18 → SFO 22:47 · 24% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 830 BUR 12:20 → SFO 13:35 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


OO 5272 SkyWest	BUR 21:18	SFO 22:47	24%	7%	0.5%	no record
UA 1388 United	BUR 21:50	SFO 23:18	26%	7%	0.3%	no record
WN 1501 Southwest	BUR 13:46	SFO 15:12	32%	6%	0.4%	no record
UA 1066 United	BUR 16:10	SFO 17:37	33%	8%	0.3%	no record
UA 1508 United Flight history →	BUR 18:42	SFO 20:10	35%	8%	0.3%	41%
UA 2854 United Flight history →	BUR 20:22	SFO 21:50	35%	8%	0.3%	53%
WN 2932 Southwest	BUR 20:50	SFO 22:15	35%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 1504 Southwest	BUR 20:56	SFO 22:22	35%	7%	0.5%	no record
UA 357 United Flight history →	BUR 16:13	SFO 17:41	36%	8%	0.3%	46%
UA 1453 United Flight history →	BUR 13:45	SFO 15:13	36%	8%	0.3%	66%
WN 830 Southwest	BUR 12:20	SFO 13:35	38%	5%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON