Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:11 pm at Burbank); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 3693 at 16:54, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 3693 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 16:54	SLC 19:50	18%	7%	0.2%	95%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BUR 16:13 → SFO 17:41UA 357	3h 13m San Francisco	SFO 20:54 → SLC 23:59UA 5753 · flown by SkyWest	6h 46m	98%	67%
Southwest Details →	BUR 18:00 → SMF 19:25WN 3474	2h 21m Sacramento	SMF 21:46 → SLC 00:30 +1WN 775	5h 30m	88%	48%
American Details →	BUR 16:44 → PHX 18:23AA 6415 · flown by SkyWest	1h 57m Phoenix	PHX 20:20 → SLC 23:03AA 4921 · flown by SkyWest	5h 19m	82%	47%
Southwest Details →	BUR 17:15 → LAS 18:25WN 792	3h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 21:30 → SLC 23:55WN 4161	5h 40m	100%	44%
Southwest Details →	BUR 18:50 → LAS 20:00WN 794	2h 43m Las Vegas	LAS 22:43 → SLC 01:07 +1WN 1693	5h 17m	88%	42%
Southwest Details →	BUR 15:25 → LAS 16:35WN 791	1h 36m Las Vegas	LAS 18:11 → SLC 20:37WN 2966	4h 12m	86%	34%
Southwest Details →	BUR 15:55 → PHX 17:25WN 819	1h 35m Phoenix	PHX 19:00 → SLC 21:35WN 4867	4h 40m	87%	31%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BUR 19:20 → SMF 20:40WN 853	1h 06m Sacramento	SMF 21:46 → SLC 00:30 +1WN 775	4h 10m	64%	35%
Southwest Details →	BUR 18:50 → LAS 20:00WN 794	1h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 21:30 → SLC 23:55WN 4161	4h 05m	68%	30%
Alaska Details →	BUR 16:54 → SEA 19:28AS 537	1h 05m Seattle	SEA 20:33 → SLC 23:36AS 1459	5h 42m	56%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON