Today looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 21–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 1029 BUR 13:48 → SMF 15:16 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 860 BUR 20:56 → SMF 22:24 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1029 Southwest	BUR 13:48	SMF 15:16	21%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1147 Southwest	BUR 17:51	SMF 19:19	23%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 851 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 13:40	SMF 15:00	23%	3%	0.5%	81%
WN 933 Southwest	BUR 15:53	SMF 17:21	25%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3474 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 18:00	SMF 19:25	25%	4%	0.4%	76%
WN 1132 Southwest	BUR 19:56	SMF 21:24	26%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 853 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 19:20	SMF 20:40	28%	4%	0.4%	67%
WN 854 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 20:50	SMF 22:15	30%	5%	0.5%	82%worse than usual
WN 860 Southwest	BUR 20:56	SMF 22:24	30%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON