Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 31–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 4588 BWI 22:26 → ALB 23:54 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4355 BWI 17:15 → ALB 18:35 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4588 Southwest	BWI 22:26	ALB 23:54	31%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 858 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:25	ALB 23:50	31%	7%	0.2%	61%
WN 179 Southwest	BWI 17:21	ALB 18:47	35%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 4355 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:15	ALB 18:35	36%	8%	0.2%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON