Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 51%, against 34% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1533 at 22:37, 49%.

Safest bet today WN 1533 BWI 22:37 → CLE 00:03 · 49% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 909 BWI 22:35 → CLE 23:55 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Weather 51% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1533 Southwest	BWI 22:37	CLE 00:03	49%	8%	0.2%	no record
WN 267 Southwest	BWI 18:10	CLE 19:35	50%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 909 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:35	CLE 23:55	55%	7%	0.2%	57%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON