Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 46–50% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 1213 BWI 19:11 → DFW 21:40 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest F9 1475 BWI 13:18 → DFW 15:48 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 49% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1213 American Flight history →	BWI 19:11	DFW 21:40	46%	11%	0.8%	61%
AA 1629 American Flight history →	BWI 15:46	DFW 18:12	48%	12%	0.7%	57%
AA 2669 American	BWI 16:18	DFW 18:47	48%	12%	0.7%	no record
AA 1626 American Flight history →	BWI 19:17	DFW 21:42	48%	11%	0.9%	52%
F9 3787 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 14:25	DFW 16:58	48%	19%	1.2%	69%worse than usual
F9 1475 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 13:18	DFW 15:48	50%	20%	1.1%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON