Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 55% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 1600 BWI 22:30 → DTW 00:10 · 55% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3081 BWI 19:22 → DTW 20:27 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 55% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 49% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1600 Southwest	BWI 22:30	DTW 00:10	55%	10%	0.4%	no record
WN 998 Southwest	BWI 22:35	DTW 00:13	55%	11%	0.5%	no record
F9 3081 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 19:22	DTW 20:27	55%	22%	0.8%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON