Today: UA 1911 at 15:01 is the safest bet, 31% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35–49%.

Safest bet today UA 1911 BWI 15:01 → IAH 17:41 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3067 BWI 16:44 → IAH 19:07 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 1911 United	BWI 15:01	IAH 17:41	31%	7%	0.3%	no record
UA 2095 United Flight history →	BWI 15:03	IAH 17:19	35%	7%	0.3%	65%
F9 3067 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 16:44	IAH 19:07	49%	17%	1.1%	61%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON