Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 49%, against 35% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3309 at 18:40, 46%.

Safest bet today WN 3309 BWI 18:40 → IND 20:34 · 46% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1548 BWI 20:10 → IND 22:05 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Weather 49% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3309 Southwest	BWI 18:40	IND 20:34	46%	19%	0.2%	no record
WN 961 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 16:50	IND 18:40	47%	11%	0.2%	59%
WN 3528 Southwest	BWI 22:45	IND 00:40	48%	11%	0.2%	no record
WN 3814 Southwest	BWI 22:55	IND 00:50	49%	10%	0.2%	no record
WN 1548 Southwest	BWI 20:10	IND 22:05	52%	19%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON