Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:03 am at Baltimore)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Detroit, leaving 12:33, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 12:33 → DTW 14:07DL 1546	2h 11m Detroit	DTW 16:18 → JFK 18:29DL 2934	5h 56m	94%	62%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → JFK 00:52 +1DL 1632	7h 52m	97%	51%
American Details →	BWI 13:57 → CLT 15:39AA 846	2h 23m Charlotte	CLT 18:02 → JFK 20:06AA 657	6h 09m	94%	50%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	7h 21m	90%	49%
American Details →	BWI 11:26 → ORD 12:34AA 3762 · flown by Envoy	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 13:45 → JFK 17:10AA 2485	5h 44m	86%	49%
Delta Details →	BWI 18:22 → BOS 20:07DL 5644 · flown by Republic	1h 13m Boston	BOS 21:20 → JFK 22:47DL 5702 · flown by Republic	4h 25m	80%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON