Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:03 pm at Baltimore); 7 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 19:09, is the safest bet: 31% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 43% of the time.

Nonstops today


WN 1044 Southwest	BWI 20:21	LAS 22:35	46%	14%	0.2%	no record
WN 977 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 19:45	LAS 21:55	47%	14%	0.2%	50%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BWI 19:09 → MSP 21:00DL 2565	55m Minneapolis	MSP 21:55 → LAS 23:16DL 1442	7h 07m	43%	31%
American Details →	BWI 19:11 → DFW 21:40AA 1213	1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:59 → LAS 23:48AA 2998	7h 37m	66%	27%
American Details →	BWI 19:17 → DFW 21:42AA 1626	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:44 → LAS 23:44AA 624	7h 27m	43%	18%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON