Today: UA 1546 at 19:23 is the safest bet, 31% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 46–50%.

Safest bet today UA 1546 BWI 19:23 → LAX 21:52 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time Riskiest WN 4971 BWI 20:21 → LAX 22:54 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 43% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 45% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1546 United Flight history →	BWI 19:23	LAX 21:52	31%	8%	0.2%	66%
WN 980 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:20	LAX 22:50	46%	12%	0.3%	47%
WN 4971 Southwest	BWI 20:21	LAX 22:54	50%	13%	0.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	BWI 16:23 → DEN 18:18UA 2012	1h 34m Denver	DEN 19:52 → LAX 21:28UA 1460	8h 05m	81%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON