Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 27% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1058 at 11:16, 33%.

Safest bet today WN 1058 BWI 11:16 → MCO 13:02 · 33% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 671 BWI 15:23 → MCO 17:54 · 53% chance 15+ min late

Weather 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1058 Southwest	BWI 11:16	MCO 13:02	33%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 790 Southwest	BWI 12:58	MCO 15:28	43%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 3062 Southwest	BWI 21:10	MCO 23:39	45%	15%	1.0%	no record
WN 988 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 12:10	MCO 14:30	46%	7%	0.7%	61%
WN 1295 Southwest	BWI 14:28	MCO 16:59	48%	19%	0.7%	no record
WN 4374 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:05	MCO 15:30	48%	14%	0.8%	62%
WN 3416 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 19:50	MCO 22:25	48%	16%	1.0%	66%worse than usual
WN 1561 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:30	MCO 20:01	50%	16%	0.8%	92%worse than usual
WN 172 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:40	MCO 20:15	50%	16%	0.8%	47%
F9 4003 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 21:28	MCO 23:59	50%	32%	2.2%	59%
WN 3777 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 18:45	MCO 21:10	52%	19%	0.9%	55%
WN 349 Southwest	BWI 19:15	MCO 21:44	52%	18%	0.9%	no record
F9 3663 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 15:21	MCO 17:53	52%	30%	1.8%	72%worse than usual
WN 671 Southwest	BWI 15:23	MCO 17:54	53%	18%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON