Today: DL 2565 at 19:09 is the safest bet, 30% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39–40%.

Safest bet today DL 2565 BWI 19:09 → MSP 21:00 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest WN 863 BWI 20:55 → MSP 22:40 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 24% on time

Against a calm day 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2565 Delta Flight history →	BWI 19:09	MSP 21:00	30%	8%	0.3%	71%
WN 4479 Southwest	BWI 20:20	MSP 22:05	39%	9%	0.3%	no record
WN 863 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:55	MSP 22:40	40%	10%	0.4%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON