Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:12 pm at Baltimore)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 19:45, is the safest bet: 29% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BWI 19:45 → LAS 21:55WN 977	52m Las Vegas	LAS 22:47 → OAK 00:25 +1WN 2138	7h 40m	51%	26%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON