Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:40 am at Bozeman)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: DL 793 at 12:20, 31%.

Nonstops today


DL 793 Delta Flight history →	BZN 12:20	ATL 18:12	31%	8%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
DL 406 Delta Flight history →	BZN 14:21	ATL 20:14	36%	8%	0.6%	87%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 11:29 → MSP 14:44DL 1226	3h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 18:37 → ATL 22:28DL 1026	8h 59m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	2h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912	7h 44m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:36 → MSP 16:53DL 2946	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 19:49 → ATL 23:44DL 1032	8h 08m	97%	76%
United Details →	BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702	3h 52m San Francisco	SFO 21:42 → ATL 05:37 +1UA 233	11h 20m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	BZN 15:15 → SLC 16:40DL 3916 · flown by SkyWest	1h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:55 → ATL 23:58DL 905	6h 43m	88%	71%
Delta Details →	BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971	1h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	7h 12m	94%	66%
United Details →	BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202	3h 12m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → ATL 23:30UA 2770	8h 42m	94%	57%
American Details →	BZN 13:25 → CLT 19:45AA 3153	2h 51m Charlotte	CLT 22:36 → ATL 23:58AA 5498 · flown by PSA	8h 33m	86%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BZN 12:45 → IAH 17:06UA 2170	59m Houston	IAH 18:05 → ATL 21:09UA 2240	6h 24m	67%	28%
American Details →	BZN 12:10 → DFW 16:11AA 952	1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:39 → ATL 20:59AA 3212	6h 49m	67%	21%
American Details →	BZN 16:14 → DFW 20:24AA 1647	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → ATL 00:19 +1AA 2749	6h 05m	27%	13%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON