Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:30 pm at Bozeman); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:30, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	3h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:59 → JFK 06:18 +1DL 705	8h 48m	95%	76%
Alaska Details →	BZN 17:51 → SFO 19:25AS 2063 · flown by Horizon	2h 53m San Francisco	SFO 22:18 → JFK 06:31 +1AS 40	10h 40m	97%	70%
Alaska Details →	BZN 18:58 → SEA 20:02AS 3498 · flown by SkyWest	3h 13m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → JFK 07:38 +1AS 22	10h 40m	100%	68%
Delta Details →	BZN 15:53 → MSP 19:13DL 2946	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 20:29 → JFK 00:02 +1DL 2692	6h 09m	85%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON