tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:47 am at Bozeman)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37% (calm day: 26%). Best bet: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:36, 69% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:36 → MSP 16:53DL 2946 3h 05m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 8h 04m 96% 69%
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:11 → ORD 17:17AA 1501 3h 01m Chicago ORD 20:18 → LGA 23:45AA 1166 8h 34m 93% 60%
DeltaDetails → BZN 12:20 → ATL 18:12DL 793 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 9h 04m 100% 59%
AmericanDetails → BZN 12:30 → ORD 16:52AA 3177 3h 07m Chicago ORD 19:59 → LGA 23:21AA 679 8h 51m 93% 56%
UnitedDetails → BZN 12:45 → IAH 17:06UA 2170 1h 25m Houston IAH 18:31 → LGA 23:14UA 2783 8h 29m 100% 55%
UnitedDetails → BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202 3h 12m Chicago ORD 20:09 → LGA 23:28UA 2827 8h 40m 92% 52%
AmericanDetails → BZN 11:39 → DFW 15:45AA 1653 3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:13 → LGA 23:45AA 2708 10h 06m 97% 51%
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:25 → CLT 19:45AA 3153 2h 04m Charlotte CLT 21:49 → LGA 23:39AA 2031 8h 14m 83% 47%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406 46m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 7h 03m 46% 27%
DeltaDetails → BZN 12:20 → ATL 18:12DL 793 48m Atlanta ATL 19:00 → LGA 21:28DL 468 7h 08m 44% 23%
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:11 → ORD 17:17AA 1501 54m Chicago ORD 18:11 → LGA 21:24AA 774 6h 13m 45% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON