tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:36 am at Bozeman)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: UA 348 at 11:35, 33%.

Safest bet today UA 348 BZN 11:35 → EWR 17:57 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest UA 2003 BZN 13:10 → EWR 19:33 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time
Weather 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 348 United Flight history → BZN 11:35 EWR 17:57 33% 12% 0.6% 77%
B6 944 JetBlue Flight history → BZN 11:22 JFK 17:45 38% 14% 1.0% 73%worse than usual
UA 2003 United Flight history → BZN 13:10 EWR 19:33 40% 19% 0.5% 78%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → BZN 08:00 → ORD 11:59UA 1693 1h 01m Chicago ORD 13:00 → LGA 16:22UA 2189 6h 22m 89% 57%
DeltaDetails → BZN 11:29 → MSP 14:44DL 1226 46m Minneapolis MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732 5h 49m 80% 53%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:36 → MSP 16:53DL 2946 1h 17m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → JFK 22:09DL 5244 · flown by Endeavor 6h 33m 91% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON