Today: UA 1693 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet today UA 1693 BZN 08:00 → ORD 11:59 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 1744 BZN 16:24 → ORD 20:40 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1693 United Flight history →	BZN 08:00	ORD 11:59	11%	3%	0.2%	89%
UA 1069 United	BZN 07:57	ORD 11:57	11%	3%	0.2%	no record
UA 2202 United Flight history →	BZN 12:48	ORD 16:57	24%	4%	0.2%	78%
AA 3177 American Flight history →	BZN 12:30	ORD 16:52	29%	6%	0.2%	64%
AA 1501 American Flight history →	BZN 13:12	ORD 17:17	31%	6%	0.2%	62%
AA 1639 American Flight history →	BZN 17:03	ORD 21:30	31%	8%	0.2%	68%
UA 1744 United Flight history →	BZN 16:24	ORD 20:40	33%	6%	0.2%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON