Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: AS 286 at 15:05, 35%.

Safest bet today AS 286 BZN 15:05 → SEA 16:05 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AS 3498 BZN 18:58 → SEA 20:02 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Weather 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 286 Alaska Flight history →	BZN 15:05	SEA 16:05	35%	6%	0.7%	71%
DL 4174 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BZN 15:54	SEA 16:58	36%	8%	0.3%	84%worse than usual
DL 4104 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BZN 15:39	SEA 16:37	38%	8%	0.3%	88%worse than usual
AS 3498 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BZN 18:58	SEA 20:02	38%	8%	0.6%	57%
AS 2141 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BZN 10:26	SEA 11:23	14%	2%	0.6%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON