Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:06 pm at Columbia); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 5108 at 19:38, with a 50% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 5108 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CAE 19:38	DCA 21:20	50%	22%	2.2%	43%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CAE 19:16 → ATL 20:32DL 2193	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	4h 36m	75%	24%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CAE 19:39 → ATL 20:56DL 1516	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	4h 13m	62%	20%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON