Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:50 pm at Columbia); 6 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Charlotte, leaving 20:30, is the safest bet: 26% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Columbia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CAE 20:30 → CLT 21:46AA 6043 · flown by Piedmont	49m Charlotte	CLT 22:35 → DFW 00:21 +1AA 1256	4h 51m	47%	25%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON