Today: AA 4183 at 18:20 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39%.

Safest bet today AA 4183 CAE 18:20 → ORD 19:59 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest UA 4783 CAE 17:50 → ORD 19:08 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4183 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CAE 18:20	ORD 19:59	25%	4%	1.0%	74%
UA 4783 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CAE 17:50	ORD 19:08	39%	9%	1.2%	58%
UA 4400 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 17:41	ORD 19:05	24%	14%	8.3%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON