Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:09 pm at Chattanooga); 5 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 64%, against 52% on a calm day. Safest: AA 5471 at 20:21, 62%.

Nonstops today


AA 5471 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHA 20:21	DFW 21:38	62%	20%	5.5%	92%worse than usual
AA 5115 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHA 20:14	DFW 21:31	65%	19%	5.5%	64%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Chattanooga). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CHA 20:10 → CLT 21:44AA 6049 · flown by Piedmont	51m Charlotte	CLT 22:35 → DFW 00:21 +1AA 1256	5h 11m	49%	26%
Delta Details →	CHA 20:23 → ATL 21:30DL 3150	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	4h 50m	49%	19%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON